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House price and transaction forecasts
  • The June Housing Market Survey by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors showed a marked improvement in enquiries, agreed sales and instructions even before the stamp duty holiday announcement.
  • Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility has published revised forecasts. Their central scenario estimates 750,000 homes will sell this year. Given that over 330,000 sold in the five months to May, and the current momentum and stamp duty holiday, this could prove to be an underestimate.
  • Longer term, this central scenario expects transactions to almost double in 2021 to almost 1.5 million. The upside scenario suggests over 1.6 million sales in 2021.
  • In the upside scenario, house prices will be stable in 2020 and rise by 4% in 2021. Both scenarios anticipate strong price growth in 2022. Source: Dataloft and Office for Budget Responsibility

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